Writing the Pine

Ah yes, March Madness is finally here.  A time for Cinderellas, upsets, and a bunch of college kids enjoying the time of their lives.  And for me, a reminder of how bad North Carolina was this year.  I’ll be posting a more in-depth look at the field later on but here are my early thoughts on this year’s tournament:

Upset Most Likely to Happen: #13 Siena over #4 Purdue – It’s no secret Purdue is a completely different team with Robbie Hummel (i.e. bad) as evidenced by their 27-point loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament.  It looked like they might be a #1 or #2 seed earlier in the year and a dark-horse to win the whole thing, but they’ve dropped to everybody’s upset special.  I guess that wouldn’t make it much of a special then.  The Saints are no slouches though.  They’re led by a three senior attack (Franklin, Ubiles, Jackson) and double-double machine Ryan Rossiter.  The MAAC Champions were a #9 seed last year, beat the Evan Turner-led Ohio St. Buckeyes in the first-round last year, and came within a few bounces of beating Louisville.  The Saints have the experience, the coach, and the personnel to not only beat Purdue, but make a serious run to the Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight.

Toughest Region: Everybody’s saying it and it’s true: the Midwest region is definitely the toughest region to get through.  Not so much for Kansas, but that bottom half of the bracket is brutal.  Tennessee beat Kansas AND Kentucky this year, many are picking San Diego State to upset them, Georgetown has shown flashes of being a top-5 team in the country and came within a Da’Sean Butler acrobatic shot of taking the Big East Tournament, James Anderson of Oklahoma State is one of those guys you don’t know now, but will know after this tournament, Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors is a top-5 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball.  With that said, I’d be shocked and disappointed in Kansas’s performance if they don’t make AT LEAST the Elite Eight.  Their only real challenges will come from Michigan State, who has been inconsistent all year, but always tough come tournament time.  I don’t expect anything really from Maryland, who might be the most overrated #4 seed.

Get to Know: Ekpe Udoh, Baylor – Udoh, a Michigan transfer, is an absolute monster inside.  He is 6-10, 240 and averaged just a hair under four blocks a game.  While he can stand to be more consistent, at his best, he is a game-changer, a stat-sheet stuffer who has the potential to go for a triple-double (points, rebounds, blocks) in one of his games.  Baylor should have no problem getting to the Sweet Sixteen, setting up a potential showdown with Villanova, where hopefully the best comes out of Udoh.

Early Final Four: Kansas, Kansas St, Kentucky, Baylor.  I’m still unsure of who I’ll pick for the West and South regions as I think they are the two weakest regions for sure, but I’m pretty certain Kansas and Kentucky will get to Indianapolis and I didn’t want to put all #1 seeds in there.  I don’t want to go too in-depth for now because I’m sure my selections will change later on so that’s who I’m choosing for now.

Early National Champion Selection: Kansas.  I chose them before the season and I’m sticking with my pick.  They just got too much talent on that team and are way deeper than Kentucky.  The Jayhawks have a stud freshman of their own, Xavier Henry, who I expect to have a big tournament, leading to his departure for the NBA.