Writing the Pine

The best team in New York...

Riding high off of the Yankees’ 27th World Series Championship, I was prepared to see a competitive Knicks squad that would attract marquee free agents this summer. While a playoff berth was unlikely, it wasn’t impossible. I figured the Knicks would finish the season with about 35 wins and 47 losses, but my hopes were dashed five games into the season. Somehow, the Knicks got worse. We fell behind by double digits at the half in almost every game so far this season. Sometimes, we fought back hard but we always fell short. Our lone win was against a Hornets squad that just fired their coach. This week, while I watched the Knicks manhandle the Hawks in the first half and then absolutely blow the rest of the way in yet another loss, it dawned on me. The “savior” of the Knicks will not be coming in 2010.

To this... not much has changed since then - the Knicks are still hard to watch

Lebron James is not coming to New York. Dwyane Wade is not coming to New York. Both players are winners who have won Olympic gold and tasted the NBA Finals, with the latter winning it all and a Finals MVP award to boot. There is no way in hell that these guys are leaving their respective teams to join with whatever scrubs the Knicks are rolling out these days. If you were in their positions and basketball was your life, would you rather play with a team built around you that you have established relationships and chemistry with, or would you pack up and leave for a city with intense media scrutiny and a band of unlovable boo-inducing losers? Barring monumental collapses and mismanagement by the Cavaliers and the Heat, those two stars are staying put. As for all of the talk about his friendship with C.C. Sabathia, let’s remember that Lebron isn’t signing with the Yankees, he’s signing with the Knicks.

The sooner the media and New York fans realize how futile it is to campaign for either of these future Hall of Famers to come to the Knicks, the better it will be. If you keep your expectations low, you’ll never be disappointed. For instance, I fully expect the Knicks to finish the season with a 6-76 record. If they win 10 games the city should have a parade for them. As an aside, the Knicks traded this year’s draft pick as part of the deal for Marbury. If we continue at our current rate of losing we will certainly land a top five draft pick in what will turn out to be the John Wall draft. Mark my words – John Wall will be the most complete PG since Oscar Robertson and we could have had a shot at drafting him. Will the Knicks ever be rid of the skid marked legacy of Isiah Thomas?

In any case, this article isn’t about lamenting our current misfortunes. It’s about what Knicks fans can actually look forward to. I’m going to give you guys a look at what the Knicks could look like in 2010 if they play their cards right. Right now, if the Knicks don’t re-sign any of their players or trade for any more expiring contracts, they will have about $21 million or so in cap room. The key to the Knicks’ future truly lies with Eddy Curry and how he plays this season. If he can stay healthy and winds up being a force in the paint, we either have a solid starting center or we can trade Curry and sign multiple free agents. If we can’t move Curry, our next priority will be to move Jeffries. Here are some of our possible moves:

Scenario 1a: Eddy Curry comes back strong and becomes trade bait. In this scenario, we trade Curry to a potential suitor for an expiring contract. Larry Brown has expressed that he still feels Curry can be a solid NBA player, but if you take a look at the contracts on both teams a trade to Charlotte seems unlikely. We could possibly trade Curry for Raja Bell/Raymond Felton and Nazr Mohammed, but Bell is a Larry Brown favorite and trading away Felton would make Augustin a full time starter without a reliable backup. Also, in this scenario we only shave about $4 million off of our 2010 payroll. Another possibility is trading Curry to Sacramento for Kenny Thomas and some scrub to be named later. With Kevin Martin down, they desperately need someone who can score and Eddy would fit that bill. This move would free up close to $9 million in cap space.

Scenario 1b: Eddy Curry comes back strong but we can’t trade him. Okay, so we’re stuck with his huge contract, but he is looking more and more like the player he was projected to be back when he was with Chicago. He is commanding double teams and providing a post presence the Knicks have lacked since, well, he was large enough to pop an exercise ball by sitting on it. He might even end up being a draw for free agents to play alongside.

Scenario 1c: He comes back terrible and no one wants him. This is the worst-case scenario. We can’t sign as many stars as we’d like and we have 12 million or so more reasons to punch Isiah Thomas in the face. FML.

Scenario 1d: Eddy Curry opts out of the final year of his contract. If he does this, he’s losing a huge amount of money to test a free agent market where he will likely be signed for the mid-level exception, if even. No way this happens unless a Knicks fan with a lot of money offers to pay him at least the difference in salaries if he opts out (Spike Lee it’s time to show us how truly loyal you are). In any case, if this does happen, New York fans will love him more than any Knicks player of the Isiah era. $12 million or so saved.

Scenario 2: Jared Jeffries and Nate Robinson for Kenny Thomas and Omri Casspi. Who?? Yeah I have no idea who he is either, but his contract works for this trade. Nate provides scoring for the Kings and he could play a role for the Kings that will remind fans of when Bobby Jackson lit it up while Mike Bibby or Doug Christie was resting on the bench. This will only save us about $4 million in cap space though.

DREAM SCENARIO 3a: Trade Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, and Nate Robinson for Tracy McGrady. This results in about $18 million of extra cap space. That gives us more than enough for two max contract players, but our depth will likely suffer. The Rockets could benefit from the offensive boost from these players, but only Jeffries really fits in with the Rockets’ system. In this scenario, we could sign a bunch of veterans like the Celtics did after acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to fill out the roster.

DREAM SCENARIO 3b: Trade Jared Jeffries, Wilson Chandler, and a future draft pick for Brian Cardinal, Sasha Pavlovic/Wayne Ellington/Oleksiy Pecherov (any one of them to make the contracts work) and the rights to Ricky Rubio. The Timberwolves can’t get Rubio out of Spain, but you better believe the Knicks can. They, in turn, get a future draft pick out of their wasted pick, as well as two players who can contribute immediately. If the throw-in isn’t Ellington, we will free up about $7.5 million in cap space for 2010 with this trade. The Knicks lack a true playmaker and Ricky Rubio might be the answer to our PG woes. This move would totally make up for drafting Jordan Hill instead of Brandon Jennings. This trade also signals that the Knicks are waving the white flag for this season and also makes us the whitest team in the NBA. While it’s impossible to get Rubio over here to play this year, if we could, we could theoretically be looking at a starting lineup of David Lee, Danilo Gallinari, Brian Cardinal, Sasha Pavlovic, and Ricky Rubio. Might have to adjust the brightness on your TV to watch them play.

Regardless of the moves we make, there are only two possibilities for the Knicks heading into the summer of 2010:

Yeah... on second thought, I think I'd rather have Amare

Scenario A: We make moves and clear up at least $25 million in cap space. Either Jeffries or Curry will be gone in this scenario so it’s hard to project what our lineup will look like, but for sure we will have Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas, and Jordan Hill. With this much space, we can sign Amare or Bosh and make a fair offer for Joe Johnson, a former player of D’Antoni’s, in the $8-10 million range depending on how much cap space we clear. If he refuses to sign for what we can offer him, I say the Knicks make an offer for Rudy Gay. Gay is a young, athletic, dynamic scorer who is very underrated and you can have so much fun with his last name. Plus, when you think about how Danilo Gallinari’s nickname is “Gallo” (Italian for rooster) and in America you can also call a rooster a cock… I think you see where I’m going with this. I also imagine we could get Allen Iverson for cheap. If he’s thinking about retirement now, the prospect of starting in MSG and bringing the Knicks back to glory alongside our other free agent signings will surely reignite his love for the game.

Wouldn't Gay look fabulous in Knicks Blue and Orange? Err... sorry.

Scenario B:  We make no moves and remain at $21 million in cap room. With a roster of Wilson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Jared Jeffries, Danilo Gallinari, Jordan Hill, and Toney Douglas we are not making the playoffs. We have no shot at Lebron or Wade and we can only sign one max player. Most likely we’ll sign either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire to a max deal. Are they worth it? I don’t think so, but that’s the kind of salary they’re going to get. If Rashard Lewis can get a max contract, why shouldn’t they? This leaves us with roughly $4 million to play with before we hit the cap. At this point, I think the Knicks should just focus on signing decent players with salaries in the low millions to one or two-year deals and just stock draft picks. I’m thinking along the lines of Lindsay Hunter, Flip Murray, James Singleton, Acie Law, Marcus Williams, or Ike Diogu. In the summer of 2011, Curry and Jeffries come off the books and we can make a max contract offer to Kevin Durant, as he’ll be a restricted free agent. If my math is right, we should be able to offer a contract that Oklahoma City won’t be able to match. Should that fail, in 2012, Carmello Anthony and Steve Nash will be unrestricted free agents.

Please come to New York

For Knicks fans, the prospect of landing Lebron James has kept us going these past few years, but I highly doubt that it will ever happen. It’s a bleak future, but rest assured, better days are coming. Donnie Walsh has done incredible things to put the team in a position to rebuild through free agency. In all likelihood, Scenario B will come to pass. As Knicks fans, we’ve been patient through the Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas era. A few more years of patience will be worth the payoff. In the meantime, pay close attention to the development of our young players and pay special attention to Eddy Curry. They hold the keys to our future.

Future Knick?