Writing the Pine

The 2009 NLCS starts tonight in what will be a rematch of last year’s NLCS. After quickly disposing of the team that many considered the NL favorites, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to dispose of last year’s demons by avenging their 2008 playoff series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. Much of the criticism on the Dodgers going into the playoffs came in regards to their starting pitching. Chad Billingsley, who had a promising start to the season, has fallen off tremendously and as a consequence, has been demoted to bullpen duties. In Game 1 of their last series, the Dodgers started Randy Wolf, but Wolf only survived 3 2/3 innings before manager Joe Torre pulled the plug and went to his bullpen. LA’s bullpen has been the strength of the team, without a doubt, carrying the team to critical victories in all 3 games against St. Louis. Jeff Weaver has been hailed by many of his teammates as the team’s MVP. I had earlier questioned the trade for George Sherrill, but his play has been masterful since coming over to LA, where he doesn’t necessarily have to face the pressure of closing out games for the team. Jonathan Broxton, who’s got a cannon of an arm, has been shaky at times, but has given enough to close out games.

The Phillies have the reverse situation when it comes to pitching. Their starting pitching was supposed to be their strength upon entering the playoffs. Although Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ have looked good lately, Cole Hamels has still been erratic. He starts the game tonight against Clayton Kershaw, who probably is the only Dodger starting pitcher that I can see going 7 innings in any game from here on out. The bullpen of the Phillies has been a mess. They lack a solid middle reliever, like a Jeff Weaver, that will eat up innings in the event that starting pitching fails. I think Pedro Martinez is best suited for this role but the Phillies opted to go with J.A. Happ out of the bullpen in Game 2 against the Rockies. Finally, Brad Lidge has been effective thus far in the playoffs, but his regular season has been too inconsistent for to believe that he could keep this up. I expect Lidge to blow at least one save during this series.

On paper, the Phillies lineup is superior to the Dodgers. Outside of stars Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard, the Phillies are stacked elsewhere in their lineup. Shane Victorino and Jason Werth continue to deliver huge hits in clutch situations. However, I believe that Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier continue to keep up their good play for the rest of the playoffs following their great regular seasons. Because of the youth of this team, many of Dodger hitters don’t get enough exposure. I feel as though Ethier is on the cusp of stardom, ready to explode in this NLCS en route the World Series. I expect strong numbers from him. Ultimately though, Manny Ramirez needs to play like Manny if the Dodgers are going to keep up with the Phillies on the scoreboard. The series will be extremely tight, but I think home field will eventually prevail and the Dodgers will win in seven games.