Writing the Pine

PROJECTED RECORD: 57-25 #3 seed in the East – Eliminated in the 2nd Round
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Dwight Howard/Jameer Nelson
PLAYER TO WATCH: Vince Carter
STRENGTHS: 3-Point Shooting, Dwight Howard
WEAKNESSES: Too Reliant on 3-Point Shooting, Chemistry

The Orlando Magic surprised many last year, getting to the NBA Finals when everybody (including Nike) thought we’d get our dream matchup between the Cavaliers and the Lakers. Superman and company had other ideas as they easily disposed of Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals. It was a turning point in Dwight Howard’s career as he proved he is worthy enough to carry a team to the promised land.

Looking at the team stats from last year, it’s clear that Orlando lived and died by the three. They trailed only the New York Knicks last year in three-pointers made (817) and attempted (2147). It’s an amazing stat when you consider the Magic were also 26th in the NBA in field goal attempts. Consequently, they led the league with 33.5% of all their field goal attempts coming from long-range. Nine Magic players shot over 100 three-pointers. I suppose when you have Dwight Howard commanding double and triple-teams, the three-point shot is going to be open. Still, it’s not exactly a healthy stat to characterize your team. Fortunately, they made 38.1% of their threes, good for sixth in the league and were able to score 101 ppg despite shooting the ball so few times. (It also helps that they shot the fourth-most free throws but they were by far the worst free-throw shooting team in the league.) Even though Orlando lost Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, and Courtney Lee, who combined for 680 threes (Alston shot 101 in 29 games for Orlando), the additions of Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Jason Williams, and Ryan Anderson will more than make up for that. They’ll easily break the 2,000 mark again. The question still is if they can continue to make them and make them when it counts.

Anyone think Vince Carter has lost any athleticism? Think again.

The loss of Turkoglu definitely hurts the Magic. He provided a lot to the team and it won’t be easy to replace his ball-handling, shooting, playmaking, clutchness, and surprisingly good defense. Vince Carter certainly has the potential to fill the hole and be even better (except maybe on defense) but I’m not sure how he’ll adjust to being the second option on the team (he still averaged more shots per game last year than Devin Harris). He does have some newfound motivation as he is playing close to home and being on a good team will ensure that he’s bringing his best everyday. Skeptics have always been critical of VC’s focus and motivation his entire career but I have faith in this former Tar Heel that he’s passed that stage of his career. As a matter of fact, I never even heard one bad thing about him his past few years in New Jersey. He’s never played with a player as dominant as Dwight Howard and I expect him to embrace the opportunity of playing with someone of such a high-caliber. I just think it’ll take some time for him to get used to playing with Dwight and for Stan Van Gundy.

When you look at the numbers, Dwight Howard’s numbers actually regressed from two years ago. He averaged less points, less rebounds, and shot a lower percentage from the field. But he played less minutes and more importantly made the jump from guy who puts up monster stats to guy who puts up monster stats and could lead a team to a championship. He absolutely owns the paint. He single-handedly makes the Magic one of the best shot-blocking and rebounding teams in the league and also one of the most fouled teams in the league. Unfortunately he still doesn’t have much of a low-post game. Apparently he’s been working on a short jumper this offseason and I’m not really sure why. A short jumper would be nice but he and his massive body should clearly be as close to the basket as possible. If he developed just a few more post moves besides that little hook shot, he might be even more unstoppable than LeBron James, with or without a jumper.

There’ll be plenty more of all that this season.

Even though the Orlando Magic won 59 games last year and made it to the NBA Finals, half the players on the roster are newcomers. Unfortunately that’s the way it is nowadays, especially with the economy still in a rut. Whether they win more games or not remains to be seen but talent-wise, the Magic are at about the same level. It’s a shame Jameer Nelson got injured last year because he was one of the best guards in the NBA until he got hurt. He was consistently coming up big in clutch situations and winning games for his team. Hopefully he’s able to regain that form that made him an All-Star for the first time. It’s obvious that Orlando will only go as far as Dwight Howard takes them, but Jameer MUST play well in order for the team to return to the Finals. It’ll be on him to get the team to gel together, which will be the biggest challenge facing the Magic this season. Rashard Lewis puts up good numbers though his game is pretty much just shooting from three. He took and made the most three-pointers of anyone in the league and he’ll do that again this year. As a matter of fact, more than half of the shots he attempted were from long distance.  The bench is solid. I mean, Barnes, Pietrus, Anderson, Williams – they’ll shoot threes. I like Barnes and Pietrus though. They play hard and play with swagger. Brandon Bass provides some muscle to help Superman out down low. Hey, every superhero needs a sidekick right? The team is good all-around but I just don’t see it being enough (i.e. the three-pointers falling this year) to take down Boston or Cleveland. Then again, I said that last year too.

The Orlando Magic’s recent three-year stretch reminds me of the Cavaliers’ three-year stretch from 2005-2007. Both teams were eliminated early the first season, advanced a round further the second season, and finally reached the NBA Finals in the third season. But in the fourth season (2008), the Cavaliers failed to reach the NBA Finals again and instead bowed out in the second round against the Celtics. Unfortunately for the Magic, the trajectory will continue to follow the path of the Cavs for one more season and the Magic will also bow out in the second round as the #3 seed.