Writing the Pine

PROJECTED RECORD: 45-37
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Joe Johnson
PLAYER TO WATCH: Josh Smith
STRENGTHS: Individual Talent, Defense
WEAKNESSES: One-man Dominated Offense, Scoring, Coaching

I saw a headline the other day that read “Woodson: Conference Finals Are Next Step For Hawks.” I couldn’t help but chuckle after seeing that.  Logically speaking, I suppose (head coach Mike) Woodson is right.  The Atlanta Hawks lost in the first round of the playoffs two years ago and were eliminated in the conference semifinals last year, so yes, the conference finals would be next in that progression.  There are two main problems with that statement though and the first is with Woodson himself.

Whenever the Hawks are on TV, I watch them closely.  When they come here to New York, I go to watch them play.  But I’m not a fan of the team and I don’t think they’re all that exciting to watch (more on that later).  I only like to watch them because I am a UNC fan and I seize every opportunity to watch Marvin Williams play.  So I’m no Hawks expert but one thing I’ve noticed is that Mike Woodson has to be one of the worst coaches in the NBA, at least on the offensive side of the ball.  His offensive system is probably the most unimaginative one in the league and if you take away the acrobatics of Josh Smith, the Hawks are probably the most boring team to watch in the NBA (even worse than the San Antonio Spurs).  A typical Hawks possession looks like this: Mike Bibby brings the ball up the court.  He hands the ball off to Joe Johnson.  Marvin Williams and Josh Smith situate themselves on both corners.  Johnson then finds a spot on the floor he likes and does some dribbling.  Williams and Smith continue standing in the corners.  Al Horford then goes to set a screen for Johnson.  Johnson then drives the lane and creates or shoots a pull-up jumper.  There is hardly any movement and it’s not a surprise that Atlanta finished 23^rd in assists last year.  (Though I guess I shouldn’t be surprised considering every single player on the Hawks roster is a one-on-one player.)  And despite all five starters having the potential to average 20 ppg, the team only averaged 98.1 ppg, 1.9 points below the league average.  The only reasons they weren’t any lower are that the players are talented and they shoot a ton of three-pointers.  And the only reason they don’t find themselves in the lottery every year is because Woodson actually does a good job with them on defense.

The good things about Josh Smith…

The second problem is Josh Smith.  Again, there’s no disputing talent here.  Smith is fully capable of averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks, and three electrifying moments per game.  But he has the same problem so many players have today.  He’s just not fully there mentally.  It’s worse for him though.  He gets frustrated so easily when he plays and it’s obvious when he does.  Smith often takes ill-advised jump shots and openly clashes with his coach when he is reprimanded for his bad decisions.  He pouts all the time when benched for doing stupid things on the court and always lets his emotions get the best of him.  And to show just how talented he is, despite all the bad shots he takes, he still managed to shoot 49.2% from the field last year, by far the highest percentage of his 5-year career.  But that stat just tells me Smith should shoot at least 55% every year.  Regardless, the Hawks have waited long enough for him to grow up.  His lack of focus and concentration on the court are too big of a problem for the team’s chemistry.  I know Atlanta’s management does not want to break up any of its core but they have to realize the pieces they have right now aren’t enough to win a championship and getting rid of Smith (and Woodson) would be a prudent move in trying to join the East’s elite.

…and the bad.

As for this season, I just can’t imagine the Hawks even sniffing the Celtics, Magic, or Cavaliers.  Sure they added Jamal Crawford and retained Mike Bibby but did they really need either of them?  (You could throw Marvin Williams in that group too really.)  Joe Johnson is such a dominant part of the offense that adding another me-first scorer doesn’t make much sense.  And all Bibby really does is shoot 3’s.  The Hawks’ first-round pick Jeff Teague would’ve sufficed as the starting point guard.  He showed how NBA-ready he is in a 5-game stretch last year that included an upset of then #1 and eventual national champions North Carolina.  During that span, Teague averaged 28 ppg on 56.8% shooting.  But he faded towards the end and couldn’t even lead his team past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  His responsibilities, however, would be at a minimum considering that the offense runs through Johnson so much.  I believe the Hawks will continue to be a mediocre Eastern Conference team unless Woodson changes his offensive system or is let go.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Johnson will be around when that happens as he announced he’ll be testing the free agent market at season’s end.  Because of this and the fact that the Hawks are destined for another 45-win and 98 ppg season, I expect them to be major players in the trade market this year.  Don’t be surprised to see a major shakeup in the core of the Hawks.