Writing the Pine

AP Photos/Kathy Willens

Lately it’s been all fun and games for the Bronx Bombers after sweeping the Red Sox over the weekend to clinch the AL East, beating the Royals with their Triple-A team on Monday night, and last night’s come-from-behind walk-off victory off the bat of Juan Miranda.

This was the 15th walk-off and the 50th come-from-behind victory of the season.  But alas, it’s time to get down to business:  Mission Possible Championship #27.

In today’s edition of Section 203, we’ll take a brief look into possible ALDS matchups with either the Minnesota Twins or the Detroit Tigers.

(Author’s Note: This article assumes the Yankees take the Wed/Friday ALDS schedule, giving them an extra day between Games 1 and 2.  This article will not assume the regular season ends in a tie between the two AL Central teams, leading to a sudden-death playoff game at the conclusion of the season.  But that scenario would be sweet.  Especially since Minnesota will hold an advantage in the season series over Detroit, allowing the Twins to host the play-in game.  But because of Brett Favre’s Revenge MNF game against the Green Bay Packers on the Monday after the regular season ends, the game will most likely have to be played on TUESDAY, meaning the winning team will most likely burn their bullpen, bench, and staff AND then have to fly to Yankee Stadium to face a well-rested Yankees squad without a rest day.  Cross your fingers and hope for a tie folks.)

(*2 games back of the Tigers as of 9/30/2009)

Expected W/L: 85-77 (According to to Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball)

Probability of Making the Playoffs: 18.7% (According to Coolstandings.com)

Overview: Sporting a 7-0 record against the team from the Twin Cities, most Yankees fans will prefer facing the Twinkies over a 2006 ALDS rematch against the Detroit Tigers.  The Yankees have pretty much owned the Twins over the past 10-15 years, whether it was at the old Stadium, the new Stadium and even the soon to be demolished Metrodome.  Especially with 1/2 of the infamous M&M tandem out with an injury, the Yankees can game plan to pitch around future-MVP Joe Mauer and take their chances with the rest of the lineup.

Possible SP Matchups:

10/7 - Baker (14-9, 4.48) v Sabathia (19-7, 3.21)

10/9 – Blackburn (11-11, 4.08) v Burnett (12-9, 4.10)

10/11 -  Duensing (5-2, 3.69) v Pettitte (14-7, 4.11)

10/12 -Baker (14-9, 4.48) v Sabathia (19-7, 3.21)

10/14 – Blackburn (11-11, 4.08) v Burnett (12-9, 4.10)

As you can see, I’m assuming the Yankees will take advantage of the extra days in the schedule to go to a 3-man rotation.  (I’m currently debating whether or not the Yankees will go with a 4-man rotation with either Joba/Gaudin in that slot.)  Regardless, I’m hoping it’s a moot point after a series sweep.  Not only have the Yankees had the luxury of limiting the workload of their starters over the past few weeks (with smaller pitch counts and extra rest days a.k.a. the anti-2008 Brewers strategy), but the Yankees can mix and match their rotation depending on the schedule they choose and the opponent they face.   Advantage? Yankees (by a large margin).

(Note: I left out Carl Pavano.  I’m going to assume he’s going to pull a hammy or oblique sometime between the publish date of this article and the first pitch of the ALDS)

Lineup:

I would go into the details of the lineup of the Twins and Yankees but it’s almost an embarrassment of riches for the Yankees.  (That tends to happen with a $200 million dollar payroll).  Let’s just say that Morneau’s injury is a huge sigh of relief for Yankees fans.  The focal point of the offense Mauer (.367, 28 HR, 93 RBI) will be pitched around, forcing Michael Cuddyer (.276, 30 HR, 89 RBI) and Jason Kubel (.297, 24 HR, 92 RBI), who are having excellent years, to deliver.  To put things into perspective, Robinson Cano (.322, 25 HR, 85 RBI) bats 7th in Yankees lineup.   SEVENTH.  That is not a typo.  Nick Swisher (.250, 28 HR, 80 RBI) and Melky Cabrera (.273, 13 HR, 67 RBI) are the 8- and 9- hitters in a potent lineup.  Five other Yankees have 20 HR seasons sprinkled in the lineup.  While the Twins are “Anaheim-lite” in that they play small ball, swipe bases, and go from 1st to 3rd,  the Yankees are no slouches in the running game, either.   With a mixture of power, speed, timely hitting, and well-rounded bench, the Minnesota Twins are severely outnumbered.   Advantage, Yankees.  (Not even close)

Misc:

The Yankees are going to be well-rested and primed for the series.  But will the extra layoff and “easing of the accelerator” prevent the Yankees from hitting the ground running?  A lot of Wild Card teams in recent years fought to the wire for a playoff birth for the entire month of September which resulted in a deep run into Oct/Nov.  (Recently, St. Louis in 2006 and Colorado in 2007 come to mind)  If the Twins do win the Central, will that help them be extra sharp to overcome any perceived deficits against the Yankees? I don’t think so.  I think it would be a HUGE upset if the Yankees lost to the Twins in the ALDS.  In fact, I would rank that up there with their 2004 collapse against the Red Sox.

An X-Factor in this series will be how the Yankees utilize and deploy Joba Chamberlain.  He looked very sharp in his last outing.  Chamberlain had good rhythm and wasted no time in mowing down the Red Sox.  He threw first pitch strikes and had his A+ slider.  Will Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi use him as the #4 starter instead of using C.C. and A.J. twice in a short series?  Will a 3-man rotation hurt Joba’s preparation if they reach the ALCS?  Is he better off in the bullpen?  Is the bullpen running too smoothly to throw in Joba as a reliever?  Too many unanswered questions and it will probably be the most talked about storyline going into the playoffs.  Advantage? Inconclusive (And not significant enough to swing the series either way).

P.S. Liriano.  What happened to you?  You’re killing my keeper league.

(*2 Games up on the Twins as of 9/30/2009)

Expected W/L: 87-75

Probability of Making the Playoffs: 81.3%

Overview: The Yankees went 5-1 against the Tigers this year, with the one loss coming against Justin Verlander.  However, with two potential power/strikeout pitchers, Verlander and Edwin Jackson, the Yankees may have flashbacks to 2006 or even 2001 (Schilling and Johnson).  Luckily, it appears fortune is smiling down upon the Yankees.  Because it looks like the Tigers will compete down to the wire for a playoff spot, Verlander’s next turn in the rotation is Sunday, making him unavailable for Wednesday’s Game 1.   And if the Yankees really luck out and there’s a sudden death playoff game between the Twins and the Tigers, Leyland will most likely throw Jackson out on 3-day’s rest for that make-or-break game, leaving him unavailable until Game 4.  But, we’ll assume he’ll be available to start Game 1 in our evaluation of a potential matchup.

As the comedian Louis CK once said, “Everything is a double-edge sword.  Even a single-edge sword is a double-edge sword.  One side can cut…but the other side….” Remember, choosing the ALDS  “A” schedule allows the Tigers to throw out Verlander and Jackson twice, including Verlander in Game 5.  I am NOT hoping for a full five-game series.

Possible SP Matchups:

10/7 - Jackson (13-8, 3.36) v Sabathia (19-7, 3.21)

10/9 – Verlander (18-9, 3.45) v Burnett (12-9, 4.10)

10/11 -  Porcello (14-9, 4.04) v Pettitte (14-7, 4.11)

10/12 -Jackson (13-8, 3.36) v Sabathia (19-7, 3.21)

10/14 – Verlander (18-9, 3.45) v Burnett (12-9, 4.10)

I’ll be honest when I say that this isn’t exactly the Twins pitching staff.  They have a legitimate #1 starter, another power pitcher to boot, and a legitimate RoY candidate.  (This just goes to show how sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  The Twins get little much credit for playing this well as a small-market team with a low budget, no-name pitching staff, and suffering an injury to their former MVP (stolen from Jeter) first baseman.)  ThisTigers rotation is very scary and could throw Verlander and Jackson out there four times in a five game series.  Fortunately, the Yankees can counter with C.C., A.J., and Big-Game Andy.  And while C.C. has an A-rodian reputation in the playoffs and A.J. is erratic, the Yankees have a secret weapon that I have yet to bring up:  Their bullpen.  Why haven’t I compared bullpens yet ?  Because it’s no contest.  While other teams are scrambling to find pitchers to close out games and build a bridge to their closer, the Yankees currently have an excess of pitchers in their bullpen that could potentially shorten a game to 5-6 innings.  In fact, there’s a very good chance that reliable and effective relievers will be left OFF the postseason roster.  While other teams would kill to add a Dave Robertson, Joba Chamberlain (possibly), and Damaso Marte to their relief corp, the Yankees brass might need to make some tough decisions this weekend. I know, this section’s for SP, but you’d be crazy not to factor in the bullpen’s ability to shorten the game.  And with the extra rest days, Girardi will have no qualms about Mo and Hughes pitching multiple innings. Brian Bruney’s been lights out.  Phil Coke has been our go to guy for tough outs in the middle innings.  And don’t even get me started on Alfredo Aceves. Advantage?  Yankees (By a hair.  A Jason Giambi porn-stache hair.)

Lineup:

This Tigers line up is M. Cabrera + 8.  No, this isn’t a reality TV show.   And no, I’m not referring to Melky either.  Miguel Cabrera is the quiet, under-appreciated MVP candidate with .329 BA, .400 OBP, 33 HR, 101 RBI.  In fact, he leads his club in all of these categories.  Much like the Twins, this Tigers lineup is very manageable and not the relentless Yankees lineup as mentioned above.  Aside from Curtis Granderson (.252, 30 HR, 70 RBI) and Brandon Inge (.232, 27 HR, and 81 RBI) the other Tiger hitters don’t have much power with no one else in their lineup close to hitting 20 HRs.  And of the ones that can hit them out of the park (Cabrera, Granderson, and Inge), all three have more than 100 strikeouts and two are hitting below .252.  They can either be pitched around or can be pitched to their weaknesses with the right scouting reports.

Meanwhile, the Yankees will throw out a relentless and circular lineup and patiently build up the pitch counts of the Tiger pitchers.  While the SP could possibly shut down a potent lineup, the Tigers won’t be as confident when their middle relievers face the Yankees batters and their knack for late-inning heroics if the game’s close or if they’re behind.  (Even if Todd Jones isn’t prominently involved.) Advantage?  Yankees.  (Closer than you think however.)

MISC:

The Yankees will look across the field at the team in the other dugout and see Jim Leyland and Miguel Cabrera and have horrible flashbacks to the 2003 Marlins.  They will promptly fold.  Or not.  The Tigers have the pitching to make it a tough series.  However, the X-Factor in the series is the fatigue factor.  Pitching Verlander at 120 pitches/outing and maxing out Porcello when the Yankees are fiddling around with the Joba Rules puts the Tigers at a disadvantage.  I can see a scenario where Porcello and Verlander hit a wall like Sabathia did after his stretch run with Milwaukee just to get them into the postseason.  Advantage?  Even.  I’m still terrified of Leyland and Miggy.

Conclusion:

or vs. 

Overall, the Twins will provide an easier trip to the ALCS.  The Yankees have all the advantages and the short-handed Twins will fall short even if they make it to the postseason.  The Tigers may provide some matchup problems with their power pitching, but the Yankees have a distinct advantage with their hitting, bullpen, and ability to rest their players leading to the playoffs.  Ultimately, it will come down to Girardi’s ability to maintain the Yankees’ focus in the final few games of the regular season where the players won’t lose their edge for the first few games of the playoffs.  The Yankees cannot fall into a hole early, especially if A-Rod, CC, and AJ struggle early on in the postseason.  I really think the Yankees are set up for success this postseason, especially in the ALDS.  They seem primed for a deep run and this squad reminds me a lot of the late-90’s teams.  Let’s see how it goes.