Writing the Pine

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images

PROJECTED RECORD: 32-50
MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Baron Davis
PLAYER TO WATCH: Blake Griffin
STRENGTHS: Scoring (though stats won’t back that up)
WEAKNESSES: Defense, Chemistry, Youth, Shot Selection, Coaching

Last season was supposed to be a turning point for the Los Angeles Clippers. They signed hometown boy Baron Davis to a massive contract and drafted Eric Gordon, the high-scoring guard out of Indiana. (Oh yeah, they also traded for Zach Randolph in the middle of the season. That obviously didn’t work out too well for them. Fortunately for them, Chris Wallace is still a general manager in the league and took Randolph from them.) Things, however, didn’t go as planned for the other team in LA. They finished tied with the Washington Wizards for the second-worst record in the NBA but sucking does have its benefits. The Clippers struck gold in the NBA Draft Lottery and won the right to draft clear #1 prospect Blake Griffin. While many speculated the team might even screw that up, new GM/head coach Mike Dunleavy showed he is more competent than Elgin Baylor (though not by much) by selecting the Oklahoma manchild. But more on Griffin later.

In a season to forget, Baron Davis battled not only injuries throughout the year, but also Dunleavy. Davis, clearly uncomfortable playing in Dunleavy’s structured system, let his discomfort be known to the public. The two apparently hugged it out but it didn’t exactly improve Davis’s performance on the court. He played only 65 games and shot an absolutely pathetic 37% from the field. He did not do a good job of creating easy shots for his teammates either as the Clippers shot an atrocious 44.1% from the field, good for last in the NBA along with the Minnesota Timberwolves. B-Diddy might have the best combination of raw skill and athleticism of any point guard in the league, but if he has another season like last year, he’ll be known as B-Shitty. Davis needs to step his game up and be the player Donald Sterling paid him $65 million to be.

Davis may be the most important player for the Clippers this season, but Griffin is clearly the player to watch. In a draft that was devoid of superstar potential, the Naismith Player of the Year seems like the one sure-thing. He showed glimpses of what he is capable of in summer league, averaging 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds. Personally, I think Griffin will be an absolute stud. He has the size to play power forward but also enough skill and athleticism to steal minutes at the 3. I’ve seen him dribble the ball the length of the court, going between his legs and behind his back. He has the range on his jump shot to become a decent three-point shooter. We’ve all seen what a dominant force he can be inside and I expect him to be a double-double machine and challenge Dwight Howard for rebounding titles sooner rather than later. When it’s all said and done, I think he will be a better version of Amare Stoudemire in a few years.

Talent is certainly not the question for Los Angeles. In fact, they have what you might call a prototypical starting lineup. They have an athletic point guard who can penetrate the lane and create for others (Davis), a dynamic scorer at the 2 who is capable of going on scoring barrages (Gordon), an athletic and versatile swingman who can do a little bit of everything (Al Thornton), a bruiser at power forward who is more than willing to bang down low (Griffin), and a defensive game-changer at center (Marcus Camby). The best way I can describe their starting lineup is that if I was picking a team to use in NBA 2k10, the Clippers would be near the top of the list. The problem for LA is chemistry and defense. As I said before, they were tied for the worst team shooting percentage in the league, but they were also tied for 6th worst in opponents’ field goal percentage. This awful combination led to the Clippers having a league worst -8.76 ppg discrepancy in scoring and opponents’ scoring, which of course, led to a 19-win season. The departure of Zach Randolph will help both alleviate both problems but not solve them. Griffin is by no means a defensive stalwart and will improve on that end with more experience. But it is up Davis to help gel the team together on offense. With so many scorers on the roster, there are only so many shots to go around so Davis has to find a way to appease everybody’s scoring appetite, including his own. A team that is happy on the offensive end will exert more effort on the defensive end.

Despite the addition of the likely Rookie of the Year, I am not expecting much from the Clippers in 2010. They are still very young and like Bill Simmons has been saying, Mike Dunleavy has got to go. They should also continue to try and trade Baron Davis (they tried unsuccessfully several times last year). The average age of the Clippers’ young core of Griffin, Gordon, and Thornton is about 21 years old. By the time that group is able to reach a point where they can be seriously looked at as one of the top trios in the league, Davis will be in his mid-30’s and on his way to retirement (but still making $15 million/year). So while Davis may be the most important player on the team this year, it would be in the best interest of the Clippers’ future to trade him now and find a younger, cheaper replacement. (As Peter pointed out, an elite point guard is not necessary to win a championship.)  Bottom line, the Clippers won’t make the playoffs but I expect their win total to reach the low 30’s – good enough to give Clippers fans some hope for the future.