Writing the Pine

Friday night I was doing my usual naked pre-shower routine – I washed my face with soap, lathering every inch of my face until it was all white. I then proceeded to open my eyes and did my best Jabbawockeez impression before I hopped in the shower. That’s when I realized I was missing Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame induction speech! Half-wet, I ran out and tuned into ESPN.

It was a great speech and a great event that brought back some of my favorite sports moments of my youth. Upon the conclusion of MJ’s speech, I tried to think of a current NBA player whose legacy may create debate when they are eligible for the Hall. Who did I come up with? Steve Nash. Contrary to popular belief, I always thought that despite his two MVP awards, he would fall short of an invite to the Hall of Fame. He had bloomed too late in his career, and he didn’t have the overall career achievements that Hall of Fame point guards have. It seems that now, at the age of 35, he will not be able to add much more to his legacy to better his Hall of Fame bid. After hopping out of the shower, I decided to do some research to see where Nash stacks up against the current Hall of Famers.

So what qualifications does a point guard need to reach basketball immortality? The voters have been extremely selective when it comes to selecting point guards to the Hall of Fame. In the past 25 years, only five post-1970 point guards have been selected for enshrinement – Walt “Clyde” Frazier (1987), Nate “Tiny” Archibald (1991), Isiah Thomas (2000) Earvin “Magic” Johnson (2002) and John Stockton (2009).

CAREER ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Each of these players achieved a minimum of six All-Star game selections, five All-NBA selections, in addition to having at least 13 seasons in their careers. All but Stockton have won an NBA Championship at least once.

Many believe Gary Payton and Jason Kidd will be the latest point guards to be inducted into the Hall of Fame – and for good reason. Based on statistics and individual achievements, it looks like they belong in the Hall. For sake of argument let’s include their resumes to see how they compare to Nash’s.

CAREER AVERAGES

Nash is in great physical shape, better than many players his age. He can further add to his career numbers with a few more seasons. But this isn’t baseball. There is no basketball equivalent to 3,000 hits or 500 home runs that would likely guarantee a pass to the Hall. It is likely that his next few seasons would see a decline in averages, lowering his already not-so-impressive career averages in points, assists, and steals per game.

The strongest case for Nash is his winning of two MVP awards which came in as many seasons. He became just the 9th player ever to win the award in consecutive years and only the fifth guard in NBA history to win the award, placing him in elite company with Bob Cousy, Jordan, Magic and Allen Iverson. His career 3 pt shooting and free throw shooting percentages are better than any current Hall of Fame point guard.

Despite this, I don’t think Nash will have what it takes to be inducted to the Hall once his career is finished. At 35 years old, his career averages will likely drop even further. If inducted today, Nash would have the second lowest scoring average, third lowest assists average, second worst turnover rate, second fewest All-NBA selections, and the fewest number of championships, All-Star Game selections, and All-Defensive selections – not exactly the most compelling argument for his bid for the Hall.

My guess is that regardless of which conference he plays for after the 2009-2010 season, he will have a very tough time adding to his All-NBA and All-Star Game selections due to his competition. In the West, he would be competing with Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Deron Williams and Tony Parker. If he were to head to the East, he would be competing against the likes of Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose.

When viewing the best years of a player’s career, it looks as if Nash clearly belongs in the Hall of Fame discussion:

Statistical Averages During Players’ “Prime” Years (26-32)

Statistical Averages During Players’ “Non-Prime” Years (All other seasons)

*- Because Nash reached his “prime” a bit later than the other players, he was given the benefit of the doubt and his seven best seasons were used (28-34).

(Editor’s Note: Thanks to all the readers who pointed out the mistake in Steve Nash’s assist average.  It’s been fixed. I’ll make sure Mr. Illini pays for his mistake by forcing him to watch replays from Missouri’s whooping of Illinois in week 1 of the college football season.)

However, the Hall of Fame does not reward players for just a few outstanding seasons. Nash, even in his seven best seasons, looks like he barely belongs in the same group as the Hall of Famers. His poor averages during the rest of his career clearly suggest his omission from the Hall of Fame.

Another major one of Nash’s major shortcomings is that he has failed to go deep into the playoffs in his career. Payton, Kidd, and every Hall of Fame point guard have gone to the NBA Finals at least once. Every Hall of Fame point guard has won a championship at least once, except for Stockton (who owns all-time steals and assists records).

It also doesn’t help his case that Mike D’Antoni’s high octane offensive system boosted his points and assists per game totals. His season averages for points and assists saw a noticeable jump in his years playing for Coach Mike D’Antoni, then fell back down to his normal career averages after D’Antoni left for New York. Point guards seem to flourish in D’Antoni’s system, as New York Knicks’ Chris Duhon similarly saw an increase in his stats.

Steve Nash 2000-2009

Chris Duhon 2004-2009

I love Nash – he revitalized the game of basketball in instilled a much-needed excitement and tempo to the NBA. He popularized a run-and-gun offense that the league hadn’t seen in over two decades. When it Nash’s turn comes to be voted into the Hall, I don’t think his career 14.4 ppg, 8.0 apg, and two MVP awards should grant him access to basketball’s most sacred ground.

In the old days, you could get into the Hall by impacting the game a certain way without having dominant stats, but nowadays it seems like you need to do both. It’s clear that the current definition of a Hall of Famer in the past two decades or so, for basketball and also baseball, that you need not be just an elite player, but an elite player FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. This is where Nash falls short. If you could get inducted into the hall for just being elite for a few seasons, Grant Hill and Penny Hardaway would be Hall of Famers.

Although many experts have pegged Nash as a first-ballot Hall of Famer, once voters carefully look over his entire body of work Nash will certainly be left out.