Writing the Pine

I’ve been waiting for a while to get this blog alive and kickin’ so you’ll have to forgive me for predicting a 12-0 finish for the 2009 Fighting Illini.  Realistically speaking, I think we’ll lead the conference in offense at around 35 to 40 points per game while giving up about 20.  Media pundits, college football fans, and pessimistic Illini fans expect a six or seven-win season, but I think we should win a minimum of nine games, ten if we can avoid one of those habitual “fluke” losses to a clearly inferior team.

One thing we really need to work on is our punting, and managing the field position battle.  Let me expand on this.

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.  Like yesterday’s cloudy morning.  The only time I forgot to leave home with my umbrella this year led to me getting off the train, getting absolutely drenched an untimely thunderstorm, and results in me swearing my ass off like I was Ozzie Guillen.  Events like these have convinced me to become a firm believer in Murphy’s Law.  So, in the same way, if we set ourselves up for failure by screwing up on special teams, we aren’t going to win many games.  Example: Illinois vs. Ohio State, 2008. We turned the ball over inside our own 20-yard line and punted horribly against the wind to surrender great field position (not to mention a punt block for a safety).  This was against the best rusher (Beanie Wells) and most elusive QB rusher in the conference (Terrelle Pryor) in one game, while having the worst rushing defense in the conference (actually the third worst, but Purdue and Indiana don’t count).  You aren’t going to win too many games when you lose the field position game this drastically.

I want to add a few more predictions about the 2009 season:

The schedule won’t be nearly as bad as people think.

It’s no secret that our AD Ron Guenther loves putting our team in the most ridiculously unfavorable situations possible by scheduling the fewest number of home games possible per season and pitting us against the strongest non-conference opponents as possible.  However, we have an easier conference schedule than most, playing host to Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan and Northwestern, while avoiding Iowa and Wisconsin altogether.  Penn State and Ohio State will surely be the class of the conference again this year, but neither looks as good as last year and should only be slight favorites over the Illini.  Our non-conference schedule would look more intimidating if we were playing the 2008 Mizzou Tigers and Cincinnati Bears or the 2005 Fresno State Bulldogs, but we lucked out and will catch each of these three programs in their rebuilding years.

Martez Wilson will lead the team in tackles.

Despite looking lost on defense last year, he was third on the team in tackles.  Now, with a full season of starting at linebacker under his belt, the coaches have moved him to middle linebacker to anchor the defense.  He is unquestionably the most physically gifted player on this team and the staff has coached him to make reads on defense and encouraged him to fly around the field to fully utilize his physical abilities.  At middle linebacker, he’ll be involved in more of the action.  We’ll have to wait and see if he has “a nose for the ball” like Britt Miller and J Leman had at middle linebacker in the previous two seasons, but if I had to put my money on who would lead the team in tackles I’d put it on Tez ten times out of ten.

Juice Williams will be THAT good.

Whose stats are these you ask? Player A is none other than two-time national champion and former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow’s 2008 stats.  Player B is another Heisman winner and national champion, first-round draft pick (third overall) Vince Young’s 2005 stats.  Player C is Juice Williams’ 2008 stats.  Player D is the first pick of the 2009 draft, Georgia’s Matthew Stafford’s 2008 stats.

Now before you wet your pants, I realize that I’ve made one obvious statistical omission in interceptions.  Juice threw more interceptions than any of the aforementioned quarterbacks had, but we must also consider another statistic that I’ve sneakily omitted –  times sacked.  Juice has been sacked a zillion more times than any of those guys.  You can argue that Juice is a poor decision-maker and doesn’t know when to get rid of the ball, but I don’t think that’s the whole story.  It’s difficult for any player to get into a rhythm when his offensive line crumbles, leaks defenders, and plays inconsistently for the entire system. If anything, it’s amazing that Juice has put up the numbers that he has!

The offensive line played hurt last season, but this year it returns three starters and has the depth to take on potential injuries.  OC Mike Schultz employs a simple read-and-react offense, which will help cut down on Juice’s INT numbers.  Maturity at the other skill positions will also cut down on Juice’s numbers. For example, Danny Dufrene had a pass snatched from him in last year’s season opener against Mizzou and Fred Sykes cost Juice a pair of interceptions by failing to run out his routes.  It was Dufrene’s first year out of Rashard Mendenhall’s shadow and Sykes was a true freshman, so hopefully we won’t see those types of mental lapses from them this season.

Add those factors in with the fact that Juice will have the best stable of receivers in Illinois history, it’s hard to count him out of Heisman talks.  He’s going to be a Heisman contender for the entire season.  Mark my words.