Every rational basketball fan will admit that LeBron James is the best player in the world and that there really is no ceiling on his potential and abilities. However, the NBA is not a one-superstar-takes-it-all sport. Even Michael Jordan had a Top-50 All-Time Player and future Hall of Famer, Scottie Pippen (eligible in 2010), to win his six championships. These days, teams have three or four All-Star caliber players to reach postseason success.
Where LeBron will land following the 2009-2010 season has been a major storyline for the past year. There has been much debate on whether he will or will not leave the Cleveland Cavaliers, whether he is loyal to his team and city or not, whether the new salary cap for the 2010-2011 season will be better or worse for the LBJ sweepstakes, or if he cares more about his basketball legacy or becoming a global icon. Fans and experts alike love to debate whether or not his winning a championship before the 2010 season would increase or decrease the chances of him returning to Cleveland. These are all topics that have been beaten to death, and honestly, no one has a clue what the answers are.
I do know one thing for sure though – LeBron won’t be winning a championship in the 2009-2010 season. In fact, he won’t even get to the NBA Finals. This is no slight to Cavaliers’ GM Danny Ferry (maybe it is, since he should have traded Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract for anything… ANYTHING. Wally gives you an occasional 3-pointer, and literally nothing else. If anything he’s a liability, especially on the defensive end) but he has just been outdone by Orlando Magic’s GM Otis Smith and Boston Celtics’ GM Danny Ainge.
Here are three reasons why James & Co. won’t win the Championship in the 2009-2010 season:
1. The Boston Celtics – Their “Big Three” of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce is undeniably aging and KG’s knees are finally looking like what knees with 1000+ games of mileage are supposed to look like. However, his season-ending injury late last season could end up being a blessing in disguise. Rajon Rondo has now taken over the reins for this team and has played with the confidence and leadership of a veteran in the playoffs. Add the inside-outside game, defense and rebounding of former NBA champion Rasheed Wallace to the mix and the Celtics will be on their way to their second championship in three years. They have FIVE All-Star caliber players in their starting five. The only obstacle in their way to another championship is the team’s collective health.
2. The Orlando Magic – After overpaying Rashard Lewis for absolutely no reason at all two years ago, I was convinced that the Magic front office was horrible and that they would be a middle-of-the-pack playoff team at best. Now, they have an NBA Finals appearance and I think Otis Smith is one of the best GMs in basketball. This offseason, they lost Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie and acquired Vince Carter, Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes. While the loss of Lee (very solid mid-range game, I’d say his ceiling is a Rip Hamilton-like career) and Alston (very streaky but an impact player) are significant, the loss of Turkoglu is clearly the biggest – he was an underrated defender and came up with many, many clutch shots – but if you remember the Magic-Cavs series in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals, it was Lewis that made most of the memorable shots down the stretch. Hedo’s offensive production will be more than compensated by Carter (on the games he decides not to mail it in). Bass is a solid mid-level exception player and Barnes, an excellent 3-point shooter, will further spread the floor for Dwight Howard. It seemed as if the Magic couldn’t miss a 3-point attempt against the Cavs this year. Imagine what they are going to look like with Jameer Nelson back healthy. Everyone on their roster minus centers Howard and Marcin Gortat are above-average long-range shooters. Now that’s how you build a team.
3. Danny Ferry sucks – Forget about the mistake of not moving Wally before the trade deadline last season. I think the biggest mistake that GMs of championship-caliber teams tend to make is that they “play chess” too much against their rivals. This is exactly what Ferry is guilty of. The best team tends to win – so build the best team possible (The Lakers acquired Pau Gasol not to counter Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, or Dirk Nowitzki, but because they were building around Kobe Bryant and he was the a great fit for the team and its system. The Celtics acquired KG and Ray Allen not as direct counters to LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, but because they were great options for the team). Too many GMs overreact in the offseason by trying to neutralize a certain advantage his rival team displayed the previous season instead of focusing on trying to make their own team better (see: 2008 Phoenix Suns). Ferry did this last year by constructing the 2008-09 team to counter the Celtics – except they never played the C’s in the playoffs! Instead, they ran into Howard & Co., where Superman dominated the old Zydrunas Ilgauskas down low while the forwards, Lewis and Turkoglu, had post-defender Anderson Varejao looking very awkward by ineffectively dancing defending on the perimeter. So instead of trying to make his team better, Ferry went ahead and made the same mistake by trying to find an answer for Dwight Howard by signing Shaquille O’Neal (yes, Shaq will be a much stronger presence defensively against Howard than anyone the Cavs previously had, but there’s no guarantee that the Cavs won’t have to run into the Celtics first – where Shaq will be forced to play defense in the perimeter against KG and Wallace) instead of going after better perimeter defenders and scorers to complement LeBron to play to the strengths of the Cavs.
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:45 pm
First of all, that first line is blasphemous. I think Kobe's proved this year that he's at the top of the mountain. To say that every rational fan thinks LeBron is better is ridiculous. Secondly, your comparison of Courtney Lee to Rip Hamilton is nonsense. Yes, they both wear masks, but their games are nothing alike. Lee is more of a slasher that'll shoot the J WHEN he's open. Rip moves nonstop without the ball and is a catch and shoot player. Lastly, although i do agree that Ferry has been awful as a GM, the trade for Shaq isn't horrible given the circumstances. First off, they gave up literally nothing to get him, i mean it's not like they could've gotten an all star for Wallace and Pavlovic. And while i do agree that the trade for Shaq was heavily influenced by their series with Orlando last yaer, Shaq gives LeBron a post presence on offense that he's NEVER had in his career, a guy that shot 60% from the field.
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:50 pm
also, i think ferry's plan is to sign a big name in 2010 along with resign lebron. shaq's expiring contract allows him to do that, as opposed to trading for a player with additional years on his contract
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:54 pm
good points Anderson. Maybe I'm just a tad bit too Anti-Kobe but I still think most people would agree with that first line. Courtney Lee can be a 17-18ppg offensive presence and not much else with a pair of All-Star appearances is what I meant, not that they have the same game.
moving pavolic and wallace's contracts was a great move, i agree. But its the motivation behind trading those players. ferry didn't pull the trigger during the season for shaq when the deal was on the table. but he did when they lost to the magic. his strategy is fundamentally flawed. name one championship team in the past decade that was built to counter its rival – lakers, pistons, spurs, heat, celtics… none of those teams were built to counter its rivals but rather to build the best possible team around its best player(s). that's what wins you championships.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:18 pm
I agree with number 1 whole-heartedly. Picking-up Rasheed Wallace was a great move, especially for that price. Wallace spreads the floor and forces teams to single-cover Garnett. He's a great defensive player, and he's at the point of his career where he really cares about winning and doesn't argue with the refs as much.
Number 2, I'm not so crazy about. What they lost in Turkogly, Lee, and Alston is worth much more than what they're gaining back. Carter has been disruptive and a horrible teammate in years past as he has a tendency to quit on his team. I don't see why his situation now would be any different, considering he would be relegated to being a third or fourth scoring option.
Danny Ferry is an idiot, but i feel like he got the most he could out of Wallace and Pavlovic. Shaq still has a a couple of good years left in him, and it gives the Cavs an inside scoring presence. The team is definitely still flawed, and could really use a slasher/defender type of player. Ron Artest would've been a perfect pick-up for them.
July 26th, 2009 at 1:28 am
Kobe>LeBron
ok no offense but that was a retarded statement to say Carter hasnt been a good teammate…U DIDNT WATCH A SINGLE NETS GAME LAST YEAR. he averaged 20/5/5. He Sacrficed his stats for development of D Harris, which the coaches asked him to do. He led the team through the playoff chase when the team was predicted to finish dead last cuz the team blew, all rookies.
Carter is now the 2nd best player on the team. N a dynamic duo of Howard n carter is scary as hell.
Spurs Lakers WCF. Celtics Magic ECF
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
In 2001, the Lakers traded Glen Rice, who was in the prime of his career for an aging Horace Grant. This move was critical, why? The one season Ho. Grant was in LA, in the playoffs, he had to defend Rasheed Wallace in the first round, Chris Webber in the second round, Tim Duncan in the conference Finals. All were All-Stars at the time. During the Lakers first championship, they had AC Green start and being 6'6, power forwards abused him. The 2000 Lakers were taken to the brink of elimination by the Kings and the Blazers that year.
July 22nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
anderson let's not just sputter out random nonsense for the sake of argument. in 2001, glen rice was at least 5 years past his prime. delete your comment now.
July 23rd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
not to be discounted–cavs still have until february.
September 19th, 2009 at 4:22 am
Wow. Kobe is better than LeBron – the results speak for themselves. Kobe is versatile, LeBron has 3 moves and Shaq is going to clog 2 of them. Orlando let him get his and stopped everyone else (with LeBron's help) and except for one lucky shot would have swept them. Kobe and the Lakers made Orlando look pitiful, and they swept Cleveland and Boston last year so it wouldn't have much mattered who they played.
RaTeed Wallace is 35 and hasn't been good for years. If you want your PF chucking up 3's from the perimeter, he's your guy. But if you want rebounding, he never has been. Boston's decrepit.
And Danny Ferry has put together a team that led the league in wins and defense but his coach was outfoxed and his Star was outskilled. Don't blame him.