Writing the Pine

Let me start off by saying that I’m surprised at myself as to how accurate my predictions and analysis in my previous article previewing the Western Conference Finals were. I should be out in some third world country, reading palms for a living. If you read it, you’ll know what I’m talking about. If you haven’t read it yet, read it. LOOK closely at the time stamp, and be amazed. The only prediction that I missed on was my prediction of a Lakers vs. Cavs finals, though I bet no one foresaw this Lakers/Magic matchup coming. Looks like Nike is going to have to find a quick fix to the Kobe/LeBron puppet series of commercials that they’ve marketing heavily for this entire postseason. Dwight Howard is out of the picture given his contract with Adidas. Maybe Nike can sign Stan Van Gundy to a 10 day contract. His postgame antics are probably more quoteworthy than any other coach in basketball. He’s the Jim Mora of the NBA. If that falls through, could we see the return of Little Penny from Anfernee Hardaway’s glory days in Orlando? No Kobe and LeBron puppet could match the charisma that Little Penny brought in his heyday. We’ll find out how creative the Nike marketing team is, but yeah I almost forgot, there’s an NBA Finals that has to be played. I’ll try to match my last performance with the predictions in this preview…

At first glance, the superstar matchup of Dwight Howard versus Kobe Bryant falls way short of a LeBron James vs. Kobe Bryant matchup. But fear not, this current Finals superstar matchup will meet expectations where I feel as though a Kobe/LeBron matchup would fall way short of expectations and the enormous hype that’s been building around it since midseason. I think it’s clear based on the outcome that the Orlando Magic were clearly the superior team in their series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Given the way the Lakers have played based on their opponent’s level of talent, there’s a good chance that the Cavaliers would not have lasted more than five games in a series against the Los Angeles Lakers, especially after seeing the way Cleveland’s bigs played in the last series. The LeBron/Kobe matchup would have been a wash and both Kobe and LeBron’s statistics would have fallen short of the numbers that they’ve been accustomed to averaging.. Based on the way their head-to-head games went in the regular season, both superstars had subpar numbers as each defense was predicated on putting the opposing superstar in positions where it was difficult to score. Instead of the dream matchup of Hulk Hogan vs. Andre the Giant (see my previous article for the analogy), we have Superman vs. Batman. C’mon, Kobe’s superhero counterpart has got to be Batman: he’s the antihero, the lone wolf. His physique is quite ordinary a la Bruce Wayne in comparison to LeBron or Dwight, and yet chicks still flock to him more than they do Clark Kent. Phil Jackson would make a great Alfred and Robin would be well, Sasha Vujacic (I don’t think Pau Gasol is willing to subject himself to being Kobe’s bitch).

The biggest question for both teams is: How will each team go about guarding the opposing team’s star? Will the Lakers send extra help at Dwight Howard, both in the post or in the pick and roll? Will the Magic shade their defense and direct all 5 of their defenders towards Kobe’s side of the triangle when he’s got the ball? The way opposing teams have defended each of these players in this year’s playoffs have dictated the way the games have been won.

In the last series, Orlando’s shooters tore up the Cleveland defense from 3-point land due to horrendous pick and roll defense. Their defense, which was great all year, seemed tentative and indecisive, allowing for open 3-point shots and easy layups and dunks by Dwight Howard in single coverage. In the Lakers’ previous series, the Nuggets began the series choosing to defend Kobe in single coverage. After 3 very strong outings from Kobe Bryant and two 4th quarter gems, Denver then chose to double team Bryant upon touching the ball. Although the switch in Game 4 got the Nuggets their largest victory of the series, the adjustments made by Kobe demonstrated his high basketball acumen as his passing carved up double teams to finish off the Nuggets in games 5 and 6.

A fan’s preview of the Finals.

In this Finals series, it is in the best interest of both teams to play the opposing superstar in single coverage and mixing up coverages occasionally with double teams to throw off their reads. Fortunately for both teams, personnel is available to allow each defense to play single coverage on Bryant and Howard. Look for Courtney Lee to start the game and play up on Bryant and force him into Dwight Howard in the middle. Now, the Superman vs. Batman analogy couldn’t be more fitting in a figuratively speaking basketball sense. There will be many encounters where Kobe will be driving only to meet Dwight Howard at the rim. Will Batman be able to use his guile and outmaneuver the immovable force of Superman? It happened during Howard’s rookie year, but that was during his pre-Superman days. In any event, while Lee has the footspeed to play up on Kobe, Mickael Pietrus does not, so look for Kobe to shoot alot of jumpers when he is being played by Pietrus. On the other side of the coin, the Lakers, who are accustomed to playing a defense where they zone their defenders to the side of the floor of the ball, will be forced to switch things up. Phil Jackson will have to rely on and trust Andrew Bynum to defend Dwight Howard in single coverage in the post as well as trapping the Hedo Turkoglu and Rafer Alston in pick and roll situations. Bynum’s knee struggles have hampered his mobility, so expect him to get into serious foul trouble throughout the series. When it’s Pau Gasol’s turn to guard Howard, expect the double team to come then from Kobe. Believe me, the encounters of Kobe and Dwight at the rim will come often. The Lakers will force one of the Magic guards to beat them as Kobe’s action on defense as a help defender will leave one of these guards open.

Outside of Bryant, the matchups at the guard positions will be a wash. Even though Jameer Nelson is expected to play, he won’t be able to contribute much on the floor as his conditioning is subpar given that he hasn’t played in over 3 months. Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic will be given an opportunity to redeem themselves following a mediocre playoffs thus far as Phil Jackson will likely call on them to press full court in an effort to take the Magic out of their offense by burning precious seconds off of the shot clock.

The difference in this series will come in the play of the forwards. Trevor Ariza’s 3-point shooting in this series will be pivotal as Stan Van Gundy will likely be forcing Ariza to take jump shots to beat them. His defense though will be an even more critical factor, I believe, as he has the length and athleticism to really bother Hedo Turkoglu. Remember that Ariza spent the previous series guarding Carmelo Anthony. I’m sure he feels a huge burden lifted off of his shoulders in this series and will play with great confidence. Also, can Pau Gasol keep Rashard Lewis in front of him? Can Rashard stay out of foul trouble guarding Gasol? I see Lewis averaging eight 3-point attempts per game in this series, enough to make a difference. However, if Gasol can get Rashard Lewis in foul trouble, it changes things drastically for the Magic offense as this will allow the Lakers to send a harder double team at Dwight Howard. Lamar Odom, once again as he seemingly is every series, is the X-factor as he has the size and speed to guard Rashard Lewis anywhere on the floor. His aggressiveness on offense in the last series will decide the series as it will ultimately give the Lakers the edge on the boards and force Rashard Lewis to play physical inside. Like Andrew Bynum, I foresee a foul plagued series for Lewis.

All in all, the matchups in this series and contrasting styles will make this year’s Finals the most dynamic Finals from a basketball sense since Miami faced off against Dallas in 2006. A matchup of strong, physical inside play with great complementary role players facing a deep roster full of skilled players. As hungry as the Magic are, the Lakers are even hungrier, seeking redemption from last year’s debacle against the Celtics. Their experiences from last year’s Finals as well as the path that they’ve taken to reach their current point have really them for this moment. Granted, the Magic beat the defending champions and the team with the league’s best record in ther regular season. And their 3-point shooting has been lethal for opponents and will earn them one of the first two games at Staples. However, they haven’t been tested in this year’s playoffs to the extent that the Lakers have been tested. That combined with the Lakers’ advantages at the forward position and their ability to win on the road on any given night will prove to be too much for the inexperienced Orlando Magic. Much like Batman, will Kobe get the acclaim that he deserves if he wins his elusive fourth NBA title?

Lakers are NBA champions in 6 games.