Writing the Pine

Sure, I was a little drunk during last night’s episode.  Sure, I was only semi-conscious for most of the episode – not because it wasn’t entertaining but as a result of food coma.  But yesterday was a solid episode featuring what would have been my high school year book quote if I do it all over again:

“We’re promoting a grenade-free America – Pauly D”

In fact if I ever ran for public office, my platform and stump speeches would center around that phrase.

Some of the highlights from last night’s episode:

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The Knicks have made a number of offseason moves to begin building for the future. In signing Raymond Felton, they have added the best point guard of the free agent class and in signing Amare Stoudemire they have added an explosive scorer to pair with Felton. When you consider the other contracts that were thrown around this year (Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, Amir Johnson, etc.), the Felton and Amare deals don’t look so bad. I do believe that Amare is not a max contract player, but in this world of outrageous deals, he’s definitely someone who will get one. In order to get an idea of how much the Knicks will benefit from the Felton/Amare duo, I decided to analyze the Nash/Amare duo, the former Duhon/Lee duo, and Felton/Various Bobcats combos. From these comparisons (stats courtesy of hoopdata.com) it should become clear what Amare and Felton would bring to the table and the production they’ll be replacing. Let’s begin by taking a look at the pick and roll (PnR), one of the staples of the D’Antoni offense.

As the primary option in the pick and roll, the PG should be able to shoot a high percentage to keep defenses honest.

FG% of the Ball handler
                          At Rim         <10 ft           10-15 ft        16-23 ft
Nash               71.6%           43.8%           55.8%           46.0%
Felton            58.8%           44.6%           49.1%           34.0%
Duhon           48.1%            40.0%          33.3%           29.0%
Average       56.6%            43.7%           42.1%           39.2%

The percentages, when compared to the league average for starting point guards, show that Nash is exceptional at this (in case anyone’s wondering, CP3 was better than Deron for all ranges), Duhon is exceptionally bad, and Felton is somewhere in the middle. Looking at actual output in terms of points per possession for the ball handler, we see a similar story:

Nash: 0.99 (1st)
Felton: 0.84 (21st)
Duhon: 0.71 (30th)

Now let’s look at how good they are at setting up their own shots by looking at the percentage of FGs made that were assisted and their PPG:

% Of FGs Assisted on           PPG
Nash:                  11.0%           16.5
Felton:               37.9%          12.1
Duhon:               49.4%          7.4

So we can infer a few things from this – as the primary ball handler and facilitator on the court, Nash has to set up his own shot a whole lot (lowest among all players with 40+ games and 30+ min/game). In the entire league, CP3 was a close second at around 12%, but the third place guy (Westbrook) was sitting at 20% so there’s a pretty large gap between these two and the rest of the league. Duhon and Felton’s teams don’t rely on them quite as much to facilitate. The Knicks ran a lot of plays through Lee and Stephen Jackson played a similar role for the bobcats once he got there so playmaking duties were shared. Next we’ll look at the primary roll man and how often they were assisted on their made field goals:

Percentage of FGs assisted on:
Amare:                      61.2%
Diaw:                         74.5%
Wallace:                   61.1%
Tyson:                      64.3%
Lee:                           63.8%

All were above the league average for their positions. I included three Charlotte players because they had a frontcourt situation where those three guys played a lot of minutes at the four and five. It’s interesting to see that Amare actually had next to the lowest % assisted of these guys considering how everyone claims he is nothing without Nash. We can also look at the success (points per possession) of the roll man in PnR situations with the three pgs:

Points Per Possession of Roll Man:
Nash: 1.18 (2nd)
Felton: 1.04 (13th)
Duhon: 1.28 (1st)

Say whaaaaaaaat? Duhon’s roll man outscored Nash’s?? By a large margin??? That is ludicrous. Blasphemous. However, when you think about the personnel involved it makes sense. Duhon is not a threat to score and has shown a startling lack of balls and a surplus of estrogen, even passing up open lay-ups. Instead of being the primary option on the PnR, he becomes the secondary option, which leads to higher scoring for his roll man. If we look at who each PG has as his finisher, Amare and David lee are certainly better offensive players than the guys Felton rolled with, which could also help explain the differences there. If there were a stat to measure how well the roll man screens and rolls to the basket, Amare and David Lee would be among the best in the league.

Next if we look at the adjusted player efficient rating (PER adjusted for actual FGs assisted and unassisted, charges, and pace) for the roll men, we get a clearer picture of what each guy brings to the table:

Adjusted PER:
Amare 22.34
Nash 24.54
Diaw 11.83
Wallace 18.70
Chandler 12.92
Felton 15.85
Lee 21.10
Duhon 10.91

So we can see that Amare is a small upgrade over Lee, but compared to Felton’s old roll men, it’s no contest. While Felton certainly is no Nash in terms of scoring output or efficiency, he is clearly better than Duhon in this regard, which is good news for the Knicks. In terms of playmaker contributions to the roll man’s PER, this is a little harder to predict precisely because Felton has never been in a high scoring offense or had a running mate the likes of Lee or Amare. Wallace has the closest PER, but this is due more to his defensive capabilities than his offensive skills.

What is not captured here is the system they played in. Nash/Amare and Duhon/Lee played in faster paced offenses than Felton, allowing for more scoring opportunities, as well as better offensive sets to work in. Although I tried to focus specifically on pace adjusted or per possession statistics, the “D’Antoni” effect cannot be ignored. Say what you will about him, but it when it comes to X’s and O’s on offense, there are few better. If he could take the lineup of expiring contracts that the Knicks trotted out last year and turn them into a high scoring team, just imagine what he could do with some actual talent. However, offense isn’t everything and since players are expected to defend as well it is important that we evaluate these players in that regard too. When looking at a composite of per game defensive statistics from last year (steals + blocks + charges drawn) the distinction between the incoming and outgoing players is rather clear:

Duhon + Lee = 1.15 + 1.64 = 2.79
Felton + Amare = 1.94 + 1.87 = 3.81
League average (40+ games/30+ minutes) PG + PF/C = 1.79 + 1.98/2.38 = 3.77/4.17

For this comparison, I included the center position because while on offense Lee and Amare operate like forwards, they did log lots of time at the center position (Lee even more so). Duhon + Lee are well below the league average for PG/PF/C combinations. Felton + Amare are slightly above the league average for PG/PF combos but below for PG/C combos. Reports coming out of the Knicks camp do seem to indicate that they will try to keep Amare playing PF, which is a very good idea. When it comes to rebounding, David Lee posted a total rebounding rate of 17.9 last year, which is a rate that ranks him around players like Brendan Haywood, Andrew Bogut, Chris Bosh, and Lamar Odom. Amare had a total rebounding rate of 14.6, putting him in the company of guys like Luis Scola, Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith, and Brook Lopez. It’s kind of disconcerting to see that a guy David Lee’s height rebounds like a seven footer, but a guy Amare’s height rebounds like a guy Lee’s height. Hopefully, Amare will bring a renewed commitment to eating up the glass; otherwise, this drop in rebounding will negate some of the defensive upgrades he brings over Lee since missing a defensive rebound means that someone can grab an offensive rebound for an easy basket.

Now for the final consideration in this analysis, let’s look at a few more advanced statistics, courtesy of 82games.com. For those unfamiliar with this stat, the Roland Rating (using stats from the 2008-2009 season so take with a grain of salt) is essentially +/- PER over their match up while on the floor. Just for shits and giggles I decided to give you the numbers for the top two players who are on the same team

Roland Rating
Duhon + Lee = -3.8 + -0.8 = -4.6
Felton + Amare = 5.2 + 3.0 = 8.2
Kobe + Odom = 12.6 + 9.2 = 21.8

I’m not a big proponent of plus/minus statistics since they are more vulnerable to bias from the quality of the player’s team. However, these numbers do seem to be consistent with what you would expect to see from these players. Having watched at least half of the Knicks games over the past two seasons, I can without a doubt say that for all the points Duhon and Lee managed to score, they almost always gave up more. So again, while the margin isn’t all that high, we see Felton and Amare should be able to outplay their match ups on a given night. Also, that Kobe guy is pretty good and if you’ve got Odom coming off your bench, your second unit is in pretty good shape (if we combine the Roland Ratings for Wade and LeBitch from that year we get 41.4! Obviously, this number will drop considerably since they will not maintain their production playing together, but it’s still pretty unnerving. I really hope they didn’t ruin the NBA for the next six years). Now if we look at clutch stats per 48 minutes (4th quarter or OT with less than 5 minutes left and neither team ahead by more than 5), we get a picture of what these guys can do with the game on the line:

                       FG%      FTA     Points     Rebs     Assists     T/O     BLK+Steals
Duhon         37.9      5.5       15.1         5.0        7.3             1.8       2.3
Lee               64.8       7.0      22.4        15.9       3.8             2.1       0.9
Felton         41.6       8.3       26.8        5.8         5.6             3.0       2.5
Amare        62.2       9.9       28.1        9.9         2.9              2.9       1.9

We see that in terms of pure scoring, the new duo dominates the old one, but they are much worse at taking care of the ball. The new guys also get to the line much more often, which is important for getting opposing teams in the penalty, resulting in free points. The old guys are better at finding guys for assists and David Lee out rebounds the two new guys combined, but the new guys still fare better defensively. When it comes to crunch time, the contributions of the new Knicks will only be slightly better than that of the old guys but they might want to put in some extra effort when it comes to boxing out.

So what can we take away from all of this? The Knicks will have a clear upgrade in terms of scoring production out of the PG spot and a small upgrade in overall offensive production going from Lee to Amare. The numbers would suggest that Duhon is actually better at running the PnR and that Felton is a better scorer, but considering the D’Antoni effect and the grind-it-out offense that Felton was mired in, the final product should actually be more impressive than the numbers predict. Theoretically, since Felton is more of a scoring threat, any PnR involving him should be more effective than one involving Duhon. Thus, we can expect a more potent and efficient PnR from the new guys. Also keep in mind that not all scoring will come out of the PnR and Felton is a great passer in transition. Defensively, we have improved quite a bit at these two positions. Felton is quicker, stronger, and a much more dedicated defender than Duhon ever was. Throughout his Knicks tenure, Duhon was regularly shredded on defense, and in the times they played head to head, Felton usually had a field day. While you can’t fault Lee for a lack of effort on that side of the ball, he was often too short, too slow, or too weak to guard his matchups. If Amare can consistently bring the defensive intensity he showed in the latter half of last season, he could be a capable defender while still scoring in bunches, becoming the kind of two-way post player the Knicks haven’t had since the Clinton administration. Overall, the Felton/Amare signings should prove to be a formidable combination that will pay off on both ends of the ball, result in plenty of highlight reel plays, and more importantly, translate into more wins and a playoff berth.

Jersey Shore is back.

I’m a couple of bottles in…So sure why not have a live diary of the season premiere. Without further ado:

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AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

It was dubbed the fight of the year – the fight that would be the biggest threat to Floyd Mayweather’s undefeated career.

Instead, Saturday night just another walk in the park for the man who calls himself “Money.” We saw a different side of Mayweather, however, during his destruction of “Sugar” Shane Mosley. While we’re used to seeing Floyd’s defensive wizardry, he showcased an offensive attack no one really knew he had.

Except Naazim Richardson.

In the beginning of the second episode of 24/7, Mosley’s trainer gave his take on Mayweather: (more…)

Time Magazine came out with their 100 Most Influential People list and it’s always a point of controversy among people who have nothing better to do with their time.  So let me throw my hat in the ring.  I have to qualify though that I’ll only be commenting on the sports figures since that’s my area of “expertise” and by “expertise” I mean this is a sports blog.

I’ve always wondered how one became a Most Influential Person, especially when it came to athletes.  Time says the list is not about the influence of power but the power of influence.  That’s a nice play on words but it doesn’t really help me understand what goes into the selections.  Fortunately, they go on to say that it’s about people who are changing the world through their ideas and actions.  In the world of athletics, it’s about those who, as they say, transcend the sport.  So basically it’s for Tiger Woods and back in the day, Michael Jordan; athletes who are not only the obvious best at their sport but more importantly, the most marketed.  You couldn’t have Tiger on the list every year though (especially not this year) no matter how much he deserves it because that would be boring.  That would be like having Oprah on the list every year (oh wait). (more…)

Chris Keane/Reuters

Speed up the offense.  Please.  It’s painful to watch the Charlotte Bobcats execute on offense.  Really.  I’d rather watch the WNBA Draft.  The halfcourt offense is anemic.  I don’t understand why Larry Brown can’t speed it up a bit.  They have a bunch of players who have been successful in more up-tempo systems.  (more…)

The NBA Playoffs have finally arrived and Dave, Anderson, and Gene came together to discuss what they thought of the first-round matchups. Due to some technical issues, however, we couldn’t post the podcast until today (it was recorded Thursday). Anyway, give it a listen and share your thoughts in the comments section.

or Direct Download [NBA Playoffs Podcast]

So you’ve all heard by now that Santonio Holmes has been traded to the New York Jets. On paper, it’s a great trade.  Combined with all the other moves the team has made in the offseason, it makes the Jets the favorite in the AFC East and maybe in the entire conference.  Holmes takes away double-teams from Braylon Edwards and the Jets will have at least one mismatch against a cornerback. The trade also moves Jerricho Cotchery to the slot where they can exploit another probable mismatch. And really, if you can add Santonio Holmes to your team for a fifth-round pick, you do it.  GM Mike Tannenbaum did a terrific job in making the move. But how successful will Holmes really be on the Jets?

To lead off, the Jets are a run-first team. They led the NFL in rushing attempts (607) but were last in passing attempts (393). Most of it had to do with quarterback Mark Sanchez being just a rookie and learning the position on the fly, but there’s no question the Jets were built to run. Braylon Edwards was always a good run blocker which clearly helped the offensive scheme, but what about Holmes? He’s not a great run blocker by any means but he’ll have to take some notes from Braylon in order to increase his worthiness to the team because he won’t be catching 79 balls like he did last year. The Jets also reaffirmed their commitment to the run by signing LaDainian Tomlinson to join Shonn Greene and Leon Washington in the backfield. With Sanchez’s progression, however, there’s no doubt the discrepancy between the run and the pass will not be as great in 2010. But you still have two superstar receivers, a former #1 receiver at the slot, an emerging stud tight end in Dustin Keller, and a couple of backs who are extremely dangerous catching the football. There will be a ton of pressure on the Sanchise to make a huge leap in his second year given the commitment the Jets’ front office has made to put weapons around him. For the most part, he looked out of his element passing the ball during the regular season but put on some remarkable performances in the playoffs to make management believe he can lead the team to a Super Bowl now. I’m not so sure that will happen but a full training camp with Edwards and now Holmes (who will be suspended the first four games of the year) will certainly help.

No matter how successful or unsuccessful Holmes is in New York, the Santonio Holmes trade is an absolute no-brainer from the Jets’ point of view. A fifth-round pick is nothing for a talent of Holmes’ caliber. But I’m gonna wait a bit before I get too excited about the upcoming season, even with all the moves that have been made. Living in New York, I’ve seen with the Mets and the Yankees that bringing in a bunch of superstars doesn’t guarantee championships. You can even look at the 2003-2004 LA Lakers when they hired Gary Payton and Karl Malone to bring another title to Tinseltown. As a Jets fan, I obviously can’t complain about any of the offseason moves. I’ll just be keeping my expectations at bay leading up to the start of the season.

For our first ever bet of the day, we’ll be going crazy: a four-team parlay in MLB.  It’s real tough to pick winners this late in the season in the NBA so I wanted to stay away from those games.  Keep in mind, I am a terrible better so proceed with caution:

Game #1 – Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
It’s the home opener for the Phillies and the Philly faithful will come out in droves to support the best team in town. Cole Hamels is primed for a season where he’ll return to form and he’s already beaten Jason Marquis already this season. Hamels did not win a single game during the day last year but it’s a new season and he should return to form in 2010 after a disappointing year in 2009. Phillies (J)roll 9-3.

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Photo Credit: Getty Images

What an amazing scene to watch on Sunday when Phil Mickelson embraced his wife Amy after winning the Masters.  It’s tear-jerking moments like this one that makes sports the most compelling drama you’ll find on television.  Sure, I love to watch my Tar Heels win, but watching Phil hugging his wife or Bob Huggins consoling Da’Sean Butler are the reasons why I am a fan of sports in general.  You can’t get scenes like that anywhere else.